3G iPhone: separating the rumors from the myths

The 3G iPhone is coming. That much is a foregone conclusion at this point. The questions that remain are what features will it include, how much will it cost and when will it launch? The last few weeks have brought a wealth of new rumors and information from various sources who claim to have the inside scoop. Rumor rags in China and Taiwan claim to know who's manufacturing the device (Foxconn, the OEM who manufactures the current iPhone) and how many they'll produce (3 million at launch, 25 million total). Palluxo.com claims that Apple is currently in talks with Immersion to bring haptics feedback to the device (please let it be true). And Engadget's Ryan Block claims to have an informant who has actually laid hands on the device. What can we expect? According to Block, 3G, GPS, a slightly thicker body (to accommodate a larger battery, one would assume) and an all plastic and glass case, to help with reception. Aside from that, it's said to look pretty similar to the existing iPhone, at least externally.

So, what's true and what's not? 3G has already been confirmed by Steve Jobs himself, so file that one under 'true'. GPS seems likely as well, given the number of different sources that have confirmed that particular feature. Foxconn seems like a logical choice for Apple, so I wouldn't be surprised if that turned out to be true. As for haptics and the all-plastic body? While they seem to make sense, we haven't heard from enough reliable sources to really peg either of those down yet. Out of the current crop of rumors, only one seems unlikely--a slightly thicker iPhone--and only because it runs contrary to Apple's iPod design philosophy.

So, it looks like we've got an iPhone with 3G, GPS and maybe haptics. But how much is it going to cost? According to a Fortune report that came out yesterday, as little as $200. Fortune claims that AT&T will subsidize the 3G iPhone by as much as $200 with a 2-year contract, while Apple will sell the device for full-price: $399 for an 8GB model and $499 for the 16GB. I, however, am not buying it. Why would Apple allow AT&T to sell the iPhone for $200 less than it sells the device for, especially if both devices require a 2-year AT&T contract? Such a scheme would penalize customers for buying the iPhone at an Apple store by making them pay an extra $200 for no reason. The only way this plan would make any sense was if Apple sold unlocked iPhones, with only the subsidized model requiring a 2-year AT&T contract. It could happen but it would be a radical shift of strategy for both companies, especially considering that AT&T is widely believed to have a 5-year exclusivity agreement with Apple for the device.

This brings us to the final question: when will the 3G iPhone launch? Given the fact that the device will need to be FCC certified (and therefore, revealed to the public), there will likely be a gap of at least a few weeks between the phone's announcement and its release. All signs seem to point to an impending announcement and June's World Wide Developer's Conference seems to provide the perfect platform. WWDC 2008 starts on Monday, June 9th and Jobs usually delivers his keynote on Tuesday mornings (incidentally, Apple also tends to announce and release new products on Tuesdays). If I was a betting man, I would say that the 3G iPhone will be announced on June 10th and will be released on June 29th--a full year after the release of the original iPhone. We'll soon find out if I'm right. -Mehan